Looking At The Forecast For Ida In Louisiana Vs New York Hurricane Larry Grows In The Atlantic
While Louisiana is still trying to come to grips with the calamity left behind by Hurricane Ida, the New York City region is trying to figure out how to reconcile the catastrophe that occurred Wednesday evening from the remnants of the same storm. More people died in the horrendous floods in New York and New Jersey than in Louisiana and Mississippi. It was horrific.
To compare the two events, we can start with the official forecasts. While the Louisiana forecasts were outstanding, the New York City forecasts were not. They were too little too late.
No experienced emergency planner should have been surprised by the events that unfolded in New Orleans and across southeastern Louisiana. People were well warned while the skies were still sunny with clear descriptions of the kind of damage that could occur.
But the New York situation highlighted the serious limitations in our messaging and alerting capabilities in weather situations that have the potential to produce life-threatening floods. Strong alerts werent issued until after the event was underway.
On Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service issued a Flash Flood Watch for the New York City region. The bulletins talked about the potential for rivers and streams to flood not much of an urban-area concern. The forecast was for 3 to 5 inches of rain with higher amounts possible. Thats a lot of rain in the north, but the tone of the messaging wasnt especially urgent for city dwellers.
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Remnants Of Ida Leave Over A Dozen Dead In New York City
The dangerous disconnect may become even more problematic as climate change supercharges storms and hurricanes. While the frequency of storms is not expected to increase in a warming world, research has shown that climate change is intensifying storms when they do occur and that can often manifest itself in deluges of rain.
Nine of the top 10 years for extreme one-day precipitation events have been since 1996, according to the Environmental Protection Agencys heavy precipitation tracker.
Climate change is making storms wetter because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. Scientists have estimated that for every 1 degree Celsius of temperature rise, the atmosphere can hold 7 percent more evaporated moisture. The Northeast is especially susceptible, being the region with the greatest increase in heavy rain events since the 1970s.
Global warming is amplifying the risk of flooding. Storms such as Hurricane Harvey, which dropped up to 60 inches of rain over parts of Texas in 2017, and Ida, when it made landfall in Louisiana on Sunday as a hurricane and as it moved up into the Northeast, show how dire the consequences can be particularly in cities.
Rain flows more quickly on pavement than across grass, so runoff can allow water to pool much more readily in an urban landscape than, say, across a meadow, Henson said. Thats why urban flash flooding is such a threat.
Henri To Come Dangerously Close To New England As A Hurricane
AccuWeather forecasters were growing more concerned Thursday that Henri, which was on the cusp of hurricane status and is expected to intensify in the coming days, will move close enough to stir more than just seas along the East Coast this weekend.
As of 11 a.m. on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said that Henri was a strong tropical storm with sustained winds of 70 mph — just 4 mph shy of hurricane force. The center of the storm was located 490 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and 810 miles south of Nantucket, Massachusetts. It was moving westward at 10 mph.
Through the end of the week, Henri will continue to push away from Bermuda and draw nearer to the Carolina coastline and over the bath-warm waters of the Gulf Stream. In doing so, the system will have the opportunity to gain wind intensity and become a hurricane.
“A cold front moving approaching the eastern U.S. will be able to steer Henri, allowing its forward movement to turn more northerly later this week,” said AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
This timing should keep Henri from making landfall along the Southeast Atlantic coast. Even still, beaches from Savannah, Georgia, to Jones Beach, New York, can expect some indirect impacts from the storm.
According to data from NOAA, more people have died as a result of rip currents on a yearly basis over the last decade than from lightning strikes or due to impacts from extreme cold combined.
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Idas Damage Is Still Being Calculated In New Orleans And The Northeast
On Wednesday, 11 new deaths were recorded in New Orleans, raising the toll in Louisiana to 26. Nine of the new deaths involved victims between 64 and 79 years old, who experienced excessive heat during an extended power outage, according to the citys health department. Also on Wednesday, New Orleans lifted its 8 p.m. curfew, ten days after the hurricane made landfall. In the Northeast, estimates are now suggesting that the total damages could amount to $24 billion.
Effects Of Hurricane Sandy In New York
|Category 1 hurricane
|Satellite image of Sandy at 4:15 p.m. EDT on October 29 as it was about to make landfall on the Jersey Shore
|1-minute sustained: 80 mph Gusts: 100 mph
|Part of a series on Hurricane Sandy
New York was severely affected by Hurricane Sandy on October 2930, 2012, particularly New York City, its suburbs, and Long Island. Sandy’s impacts included the flooding of the New York City Subway system, of many suburban communities, and of all road tunnels entering Manhattan except the Lincoln Tunnel. The New York Stock Exchange closed for two consecutive days. Numerous homes and businesses were destroyed by fire, including over 100 homes in Breezy Point, Queens. Large parts of the city and surrounding areas lost electricity for several days. Several thousand people in midtown Manhattan were evacuated for six days due to a crane collapse at Extell’s One57. Bellevue Hospital Center and a few other large hospitals were closed and evacuated. Flooding at 140 West Street and another exchange disrupted voice and data communication in lower Manhattan.
At least 43 people died in New York City as a result of the storm, and 53 in the state. Thousands of homes and an estimated 250,000 vehicles were destroyed during the storm, and the economic losses in New York City were estimated to be roughly $19 billion with an estimated $32.8 billion required for restoration across the state.
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Long Island In The Crosshairs
As of 11 a.m. Aug. 21, Henris center of circulation sat about 465 miles south of Montauk Point. Its expected to rush up toward our area tonight, with the center of circulation sitting just to the south of Long Island by 8 a.m. Sunday morning. But forecasters believe the storm will begin to slow down as it crosses over Long Island, with the center of the system sitting over southeastern Connecticut at 8 p.m. tomorrow night.
Its expected that Suffolk County will bear the brunt of the storm with waves 3 to 5 feet higher than normal and between 8 and 10 inches of rainfall expected, Cuomo noted.
Long Island hasnt received a direct hit from a hurricane since Gloria struck in 1985. The category 1 storm devastated the islands power grid, and it took weeks for it to be restored PSEG Long Island warned that it could take up to a week or longer to fully restore power if parts of Long Island suffered a similar hit from Henri.
Given the potential intensity of the storm, the damage may be severe and some outages may last up to seven to 10 days however, if the forecast continues to strengthen and the storm moves farther west, restoration could take up to 14 days, said Michael Sullivan, senior director of Transmission & Distribution at PSEG Long Island, on Saturday. We are prepared for hurricane force winds and are informing customers to help set expectations about the storms potential so that they can also prepare.
What To Do After A Hurricane
- Listen to authorities for information and special instructions.
- It may take longer than usual to restore power and water if they are out. Take steps to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning if you use a generator.
- Be careful during clean-up. Wear protective clothing and work with someone else.
- Do not touch electrical equipment if it is wet or if you are standing in water. If it is safe to do so, turn off electricity at the main breaker or fuse box to prevent electric shock.
- Avoid wading in flood water, which can contain dangerous debris. Underground or downed power lines can also electrically charge the water.
- Save phone calls for emergencies. Phone systems are often down or busy after a disaster. Use text messages or social media to communicate with family and friends.
- Document any property damage with photographs. Contact your insurance company for assistance.
- Continue to use preventive actions to stay healthy, like washing your hands and wearing a face covering, during clean-up or when returning home.
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What To Do Before A Hurricane
- Develop a plan with your household members that outlines what to do, how to find each other, and how to communicate if a hurricane strikes. Use Ready New York: My Emergency Plan at NYC.gov/myemergencyplan.
- Know your zone. Areas of the city subject to storm surge flooding are divided into six evacuation zones based on risk of storm surge flooding. The City may order residents to evacuate depending on the hurricane’s track and projected storm surge. Use the Hurricane Evacuation Zone Finder or call 311 to find out if your address is located in an evacuation zone. If you live in an evacuation zone, have a plan for where you will go if an evacuation order is issued for your area.
- Note: Flood zones are used to determine flood insurance requirements. *Residents should not use flood zones to determine the need to evacuate during coastal storms.* The City will determine which of the hurricane evacuation zones should be evacuated based on the characteristics of an actual storm as it is approaching the city. For more information about flood zones, visit www.floodhelpny.org.
The National Weather Service Has Issued A Flash Flood Watch For Parts Of New York And New Jersey
After flash flooding last week caused the majority of the deaths in the region, the National Weather Service has issued a flash-flood watch for much of New Jersey outside of New York City and Philadelphia as well as for several counties in New York State. Ida resulted in the first-ever flash-flood emergency to be issued in the city.
NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of Eastern PA, Northern NJ and Southeast NY until 4:00am on Thursday. Periods of heavy rain tonight could lead to flooding, especially with saturated conditions from last weeks rainfall.
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How To Decode Hurricane Season Terms
You may read about hurricanes, typhoons or cyclones. So whats the difference? Location.
Hurricane is largely used in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific typhoon, in the Northwest Pacific and cyclone in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
The Atlantic season, when hurricanes and tropical storms are most likely to hit the U.S., runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Heres What You Need To Know:
The Northeast braced Sunday morning for the arrival of Tropical Storm Henri, packing winds of 60 miles an hour as it headed toward shore, according to the National Hurricane Center.
At 11 a.m. Eastern time, Henri, which was downgraded from a hurricane Sunday morning, was about 50 miles south-southwest of Providence, R.I., and 15 miles east of Montauk at the tip of Long Island. It was headed north-northwest at 12 miles an hour and was expected to make landfall in Rhode Island by early afternoon, the hurricane center reported.
Storm surge warnings were in effect on the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and Long Island Sound from Queens in New York City out to the tip of Long Island, and all along the New England coast from Connecticut to the base of Cape Cod. If the peak surge occurs around the time of high tide, flooding of two to four feet is possible in those areas.
Sustained winds of over 50 miles an hour have already been reported in coastal Rhode Island. After Henri hits land, it is expected to head toward the north and weaken rapidly. The storm is expected to slow and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border on Sunday night before moving across northern Connecticut and southern Massachusetts on Monday, the hurricane center said.
Go here for the latest on deadly flooding in New York.
With Hurricane Henri fast approaching on Saturday afternoon, Suffolk County officials , which lies on the southern shore of Long Island, to voluntarily evacuate before landfall.
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New York City Impacts
Henris rains could begin falling across New York City as early as Saturday evening, according to the National Weather Service. The wind will also pick up the Five Boroughs will likely experience tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph for much of the day Sunday, with higher gusts possible.
Parts of the city can expect to see between 2 and 4 inches of rain, with higher amounts possible in isolated spots. As with any tropical system, Henri has the potential for spawning strong thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes.
Borough President Donovan Richards warned Queens residents to take extra precautions to stay safe this weekend.
Keep a close eye to the sky as #Henri makes its way toward our area on Sunday as a hurricane. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for #Queens, so if you live in a flood-prone area, make sure you’re taking extra precautions this weekend.
Stay safe and stay tuned for updates.
Hurricane Ida Drowned 11 New Yorkers In Their Own Homes The Climate Crisis Is Here
New York and other major cities will need to spend billions of dollars fortifying themselves for extreme weather. Even neighborhoods above sea level arent safe
In New York City last week, more than three inches of rain fell in one hour, shattering all previous records. Busy streets and highways turned into rivers. The subway was inundated, temporarily shutting down. At least 13 people died, most of them drowning in basement apartments. The devastation brought back chilling memories of Superstorm Sandy, which flooded large swaths of the city 11 years ago.
The death and destruction that Hurricane Ida just inflicted on New York is a reminder that the climate crisis isnt coming. Its here. There will be more fierce hurricanes and flooding, the kind of weather events that can destabilize a society.
Ida and Sandy differed in one crucial way: the storm surge. In 2012, Sandy overwhelmed New York Citys coastlines, sending ocean water into residential neighborhoods. The worst-hit areas, like Lower Manhattan and the Rockaway peninsula, were all near rivers, bays or open seas. It was understood that protecting the coastline was critical to averting disaster. As terrible as Ida was, it did not match the destruction wrought by Sandy, a storm that knocked out power, in some areas, for weeks.
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Turn Around Dont Drown Meteorologist Says Urging Drivers To Stay Out Flooded Areas
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According to the National Weather Service, 1.94 inches of rain hit Central Park between 10 and 11pm on Saturday. This weekend was the wettest two days since Tropical Storm Irene pummeled the city a decade ago, National Weather Service meteorologist Dominic Ramunni told The Associated Press.
I call it the wettest hour in New York City, New York, for the record books, Mr Ramunni said. Were going to see additional rainfall through tonight as well so who knows what records may be broken here over the next 24 to 36 hours, he said on Sunday.
The rain on Saturday led to the cancelling of a Homecoming concert in Central Park as 4.5 inches of rainfall came crashing down, breaking a record from 1888. Sunday set even further records as 2.24 inches had fallen before 6pm. The concert was hastily ended as Barry Manilow prepared to perform Cant Smile Without You.
More than 100 residents were evacuated from their homes in Helmetta, New Jersey, after Tropical Storm Henri, downgraded from a hurricane on Sunday, came crashing through the area, CBS New York reported. Later on Sunday night, the storm was downgraded again to a Tropical Depression.