Effects Of Climate Change
Although many minds think of climate change during unusual weather events, says Tang, he doesnt think this particular November tornado incident is necessarily indicative of any climate-change related trend.
Certainly its a natural question to ask, what the connection to climate is, he says. In this case, I think it was just the right ingredients coming together during an unusual time of the year.
Noll says when it comes to climate change, tornadoes are fairly low on the list of concerns.
Research indicates low confidence in detecting a link between tornadoes and climate change, says Noll. Confidence is higher for rising temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture and humidity, which are ingredients for thunderstorms, however its uncertain as to whether this will result in more tornadic thunderstorms or not.
Tang concurs. Certainly climate change did not cause the event, he says. But, he says, it is impossible to rule out whether climate change made things worse. There is some speculation that because the ocean temperatures are much warmer than usual this year, some of that possibly has a climate-change fingerprint associated with it, and that contributed to some of the humidity that fueled the thunderstorms.
We are seeing more of those occurring and they are affecting society and becoming more damaging, says Tang. That definitely has a high impact and is much more dangerous than the occasional tornado.
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Tornado Warning And Storms Jolt New York Region
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Weather: Relatively calm during the day today, but tonight could see a repeat of last night, with thunderstorms bringing heavy rain, damaging wind, possible large hail and, yes, maybe even tornado activity.
Alternate-side parking: In effect today suspended tomorrow for Solemnity of the Ascension.
A rare tornado warning startled the New York region on Tuesday night, sending people scurrying for shelter as thunderstorms descended.
In New Jersey, a tornado touched down near Stanhope,meteorologists at the National Weather Service confirmed on Wednesday.
The Weather Service was still working to determine the path and speed of the tornado as of Wednesday afternoon. No major injuries were reported, officials said, but the tornado uprooted trees and caused damage at Lenape Valley Regional High School, which was closed on Wednesday as officials assessed the damage and removed debris.
Farther south, a tornado touched down in Morgantown, Pa., a town about 50 miles west of Philadelphia. No serious injuries were reported.
In New York City, which was also under the tornado warning, there were no confirmed sightings of tornadoes. Joe Pollina, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, said they had no reports of wind damage in the city, suggesting that no tornado touched down there.
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Tornadoes Have Touched Down In The Area In April And November This Year
People clean up damage from a storm at a home on McDermott Road on Sunday, Aug. 30, 2020, in Stillwater, N.Y. An unusual series tornadoes hit the Hudson Valley in November 2021.
A violent tornado sweeps across northwest Oklahoma near the town of Arnett on May 4, 2007. A few tornadoes touched down in the Hudson Valley this year, prompting some to wonder if the region is becoming more prone to tornadoes than in the past.
A freak series of tornadoes touched down in New York in mid-November, including one near Millbrook on Nov. 12, that left a damage path of two and a half miles, according to the National Weather Service.
That November cluster of 11 tornadoes in New York, Rhode Island and Connecticut followed a tornado watch in August for Dutchess, Columbia and Greene counties, and a confirmed tornado touch down in Amenia, Dutchess County on April 21.
Update…3 more tornadoes have been confirmed from Saturday’s storms. There were 11 total tornadoes Saturday – 6 on Long Island New York , 4 in Connecticut and 3 in Rhode Island .
NWS Eastern Region
For November, these events were incredible, said atmospheric scientist Brian Tang, an associate professor at the University at Albany. Its anomalous and strange to have that many tornadoes.
Should we expect more tornadoes in the future, given confirmed cases this year as well intensity of storms this summer related to Hurricane Ida and Tropical Depression Henri?
New In 202: Cracking Comedians Coming To York
Sunday 2 January, 2022
After the last couple of years, were all in need of a good laugh
With plenty of fantastic comics coming to York next year take your pick!
The year kicks off with a double-bill of chatty man Alan Carr at York Barbican, with other big names such as Joe Lycett, Sandi Toksvig and Sara Pascoe visiting the venue later in the year.
Theatres arent short of comedy acts either with Nish Kumar, Al Murray and more at the Grand Opera House, and make sure to catch comedy night Live at the Theatre Royal with Phil Wang.
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What New Yorkers Need To Know About Tornadoes
While the chances of a tornado in any of the boroughs are slim, experts said one could still spawn from a severe thunderstorm and devastate the city.
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Air twisted, whirled and howled, hurling debris off brownstone rooftops and shucking trees from sidewalk plots. Cars flipped, people fled.
The tornado that struck Brooklyn in August 2007 caused tens of millions of dollars in damage, displaced dozens of residents and sent a warning to New York: The next one could prove catastrophic, especially in a city unaccustomed to such storms.
While the chance of a tornado striking New York City remains extremely small, the 2007 storm proved that it is not out of the question. On Saturday, as heavy rain, quarter-size hail and powerful wind battered the region, seventornadoes skirted perilously close to the city, with four touching down on Long Island and three in Connecticut, the National Weather Service said.
The next time a tornado hits the city, the consequences could be devastating, according to interviews with more than 30 experts, including meteorologists, engineers and government officials.
Metropolitan Diary: Not Alone
I was in Midtown, heading to my office on the East Side. It was summer, and I was in the back of a taxi with the windows down. We were idling in midday traffic, waiting for the light to turn.
The opening piano notes of Alone by Heart came on the radio. The cabdriver, a man in his 30s, nudged the volume knob ever so slightly. Not a lot, but enough that I took notice. Then he did it again, and the music got a little louder.
I leaned forward.
I love this song, too, I said. Turn it up!
He did. And then, with no prompting whatsoever and to the apparent delight of many pedestrians nearby we belted the chorus out in unison at the top of our lungs.
We were having so much fun that we carried that tune together straight to the end of the song. The final notes coincided with the end of the ride.
The cabby pulled over to let me out. He turned around and said that the song was his favorite of all time and that the ride would be a favorite memory.
Me, too, I said. Me, too.
New York Today is published weekdays around 6 a.m. to get it by email. You can also find it at nytoday.com.
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A Small Chance But Not One To Ignore
Of the roughly 1,200 tornadoes that form in the United States every year, only a tiny number threaten cities.
There is about a 1 in 2,000 chance that a tornado will strike a particular building in Oklahoma City in any given year, said Paul Markowski, a professor of meteorology at Penn State University, citing data from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. The odds of a tornado striking a particular target in New York City, he said, are lower: about 1 in 5,000.
But tornadoes appear in every state, killing about 80 people a year nationwide, and the danger to cities should not be dismissed, experts said.
The atmosphere is agnostic about where the right conditions will come together, Dr. Markowski said. If you have Oklahoma or Alabama tornado conditions developing in New York, youll get an Oklahoma or Alabama tornado event in New York.
Scientists have not yet determined whether a link exists between climate change and the frequency or strength of tornadoes, which are relatively small, short-lived storms. There is also limited data available.
But climate change is most likely increasing the number of days in which conditions are ripe for thunderstorms, which can spawn tornadoes, said Michael Tippett, a professor of applied mathematics at Columbia University.
Based on current climate models, the New York region could have about six more days a year of thunderstorm weather by 2100, said John Allen, a climate scientist at Central Michigan University.
Tornadoes In Florida Cause Widespread Damage
A winter storm in the Southeast spawned multiple tornadoes in southwestern Florida, displacing about 200 people and causing widespread damage.
That is touchdown confirmation of a tornado. And we are going to go get inside the house because its coming in directly for us. Holy crap.
A strong winter storm that coated highways in the Carolinas and Georgiawith ice and knocked out power to nearly 200,000 customers headed early Monday into the Northeast, where it was expected to leave a foot of snow or more in some places. The most significant snowfall is expected overnight.
The storm will likely move west of Washington, D.C. around midnight, and then north into Pennsylvania, northern New York State and Vermont, and landing in the province of Quebec by Monday evening, said Jim Connolly, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
In the South, where some governors declared states of emergency, areas such as central Mississippi and central North Carolina had already received more than nine inches of snow, while portions of central South Carolina had up to a half-inch of ice, the National Weather Service said.
This storm is going to be pretty significant in terms of generating travel impacts, outages and things of that nature, said Rich Otto, a meteorologist with the Weather Service.
Meteorologists said that in parts of the Northeast, the snow could fall at a rate of three inches an hour on Sunday evening.
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Tornado Risk Overview Storm Prediction Center
The key things to know from the experts, select images for more info at source
Todays tornado probabilities
The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. If a hatched area is included in the image, which is only done with probabilities of 10 percent or higher, strong tornadoes are more of a concern than normal. The following tornado probabilities correspond to each SPC storm risk category.
2%, Marginal | 5%, Slight | 10%, Enhanced | 15%, Moderate | 30%, Moderate | 30%+, High
Current outlook areas, radar, and convective watches
Organized risk of severe storms begins with marginal . Levels increase from there to slight , then enhanced , next is moderate , and finally high . In a marginal risk, one might expect mostly non severe storms, with perhaps an isolated severe weather incident. Severity is up from there, from short-lived in slight to more persistent in enhanced, long-lived in moderate, and exceptional in high. SPC has a graphic covering differences.
Watches, either tornado or severe thunderstorm , indicate that storms are likely to pose the highlighted threat. Tornadoes also occur in severe thunderstorm watches fairly frequently.
The days ahead
A look at the key environmental factors
U.S. surface features
U.S. observations, including wind speed and direction
And Finally: An Ode To Underground Oddities
Its hot. Its smelly. Its odd. Its lovely. Its the only subway Ive ever really known, and the only one thats ever seen me in all my moods: caffeinated, tired, curious, drunk and delirious.
New York City subway: I love you madly because you are maddeningly beyond words.
We recently took a quick break from reminding you of how awful your subway commute is to remind you that yes, there can be joy in Mudville. Here is an assortment of riders OMG moments on the trains, collected by my colleague Emma G. Fitzsimmons:
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Two Rescued From Flash Flood Waters In Maryland County
From CNNs Gregory Lemos and Leslie Holland
Two people have been rescued from flash flood waters resulting from from Tropical Storm Isaias in Charles County, Maryland, according to a Fire and EMS official.
Bill Smith, Charles County volunteer fire and EMS public information officer, said 911 dispatch received a call at 8:45 a.m. ET Tuesday that at least one car had been swept off Brandywine Road during heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the Swanson Creek Bridge.
This bridge is notorious and floods every time it rains, Smith told CNN Tuesday. This was one of worst flooding occurrences given the amount of rain we got this morning.
Smith said the Charles County Dive Team and Hughesville Volunteer Fire Department responded and were able to confirm two vehicles had been swept 15 to 75 feet off the road.
One individual, a female, was hanging from tree limb and male was found on the roof of car, Smith said. An air boat from 10th District Fire Station arrived on scene and made gallant effort to get into the water and were successfully able to take male off car and return for female.
Smith said there were no injuries and both people refused transport.
In addition to the flash flooding on Brandywine Road, Smith said there are also trees down and additional flooding on roads. He noted that the Charles County Fire Department and EMS has responded to between eight and 10 additional calls of people driving through swift water and requiring assistance.
Weather In Upstate New York
Retrieving weather information…
Rain will start Thanksgiving night and turn to snow as a cold front passes through.
Up to 8 inches of snow could fall on Tug Hill.
One spot in Western New York recorded 8 inches of snow.
The average home will pay $180 more this winter.
Lake Ontario, which causes most of the lake-effect snow in Central New York, is 4 degrees above normal for this time of year.
Tug Hill and the Adirondacks could see several inches.
Temperatures could fall below freezing in Syracuse for the first time since April.
Less rain is expected than fell Tuesday, but it will take less to flood.
A second La Nina in a row could mean less snow and more rain.
Thanks to unseasonable weather, peak foliage may still include plenty of green leaves.
Some wet snowflakes are possible on hilltops this weekend.
Aerial video of the leaves changing color in Upstate New York
Interactive weather maps including local radar, satellite, severe, forecast maps, and more …More maps from AccuWeather»
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List Of New York Hurricanes
Eighty-five tropical or subtropical cyclones have affected the state of New York since the 17th century. The state of New York is located along the East Coast of the United States, in the Northeastern portion of the country. The strongest of these storms was the 1938 New England hurricane, which struck Long Island as a Category 3 storm on the SaffirSimpson hurricane scale. Killing more than 60 people, it was also the deadliest. Tropical cyclones have affected the state primarily in September but have also hit during every month of the hurricane season, June through November. Tropical cyclones rarely make landfall on the state, although it is common for remnants of tropical cyclones to produce heavy rainfall and flooding.
A Small Community Of Weather Enthusiasts Has Plenty To Document Close To Home
As tornadoes go, it wasnt much: more of a vague black mass than a funnel cloud crossing a suburban New Jersey road. But Mariya Isabella had been waiting for years to capture one on camera, and she and her husband Nicholas raced the last mile to film it, using radar as their guide. As storm chasers, they regularly track and follow weather systems, from lightning strikes to hurricanes. Some do it for the thrill, the chance to capture the raw power of a storm up close. But a few do make a living or, like the Isabellas, run a decent side hustle selling their footage to television networks and news stations. That day, with the remnants of Hurricane Ida arriving in the Northeast, they had been anticipating tornadoes, and Mariya finally got her wish to see one. After grabbing some footage, it was time to head home to Bay Ridge.
Thats one of the only times Ive felt scared, said Nicholas. I dont take chances. But when youre stuck on a highway like everyone else was and the water starts coming up that quick, you cant do anything. Youre helpless.
As the storms have gotten more intense, the demand for storm-chasing footage and even the personal profiles of the ones doing the chasing has gone up. Few have seized on this shift toward the city more than Nicholas Isabella. For Nicholas, being in the city during Superstorm Sandy in 2012 was a pivotal moment for him.
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